Time to talk coalition
We’re into a tumultuous week in Canadian politics. Seven days to go in the campaign, and we’re looking at:
- A market meltdown, a looming recession, and — at last — a hurriedly rewritten Conservative party platform
- Tightening of the polls, crippling the Tory surge that once made a Harper majority likely
- The real possibility of a fractured Parliament that could see the birth of a Liberal-NDP coalition.
Monday night, after much criticism from the Opposition parties, the blogosphere and talk show radio from coast to coast, the PM finally blinked. He admitted “significant storm clouds” are gathering over Canada, but used the alarm to suggest the Liberal party’s Green Shift would only make things worse. “We have other plans, other proposals,’ he declared, seeking to reassure worried voters.
“Too little, too late,” Stephan Dion said of the Conservative leader’s pronouncement. And the PM’s “do nothing” policy “isn’t going to do anything to protect your jobs or your savings or your pensions or the home you live in,” chimed in Jack Layton.
Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe moved the yardsticks a bit further. He wants an urgent recall of Parliament as soon as possible after the election. “We need concrete measures as soon as possible.”
Duceppe may have touched a nerve. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority but emerge with the most seats, they’d likely try to delay meeting Parliament, perhaps until into the New Year.
The polls now show Conservative support at 32 to 35 per cent – a point or two below what they gained in 2006. At this rate, they could end up with a bare third of the vote.
Because Liberal support is also down — now between 25 and 30 per cent, say the pollsters (it was 30 per cent in the last election), it’s hardly likely they will win more seats than the Tories.
With the NDP now hovering at 20 per cent, the Bloc at 10 or 11 and the Greens over 10, we may end up with a “House of Minorities” like nothing we’ve ever seen before.
Coalition talk heats up
Last week, I passed on Judy Rebick’s idea for a Liberal-NDP coalition, with Bloc support. It could happen. When my blog was posted on Democratic Space, several readers gave the idea their backing.
One response: “I would fully support a NDP-Liberal-Bloc coalition, and I totally disagree with the premise that the Bloc wouldn’t support it; it’s there to work with the federal system for Quebec’s interests until Quebec decides otherwise.”
If the Conservatives win the most seats, Mr. Harper will be entitled to go back in, But he’ll be obligated to meet Parliament at the earliest opportunity. Which is what Mr. Duceppe was really saying.
What would it take to defeat a Harper government in Parliament?
- A formal agreement between the Liberals and the NDP for a ”crisis coalition” to meet the the dire economic circumstances threatening to befall Canada
- A commitment on the part of the Bloc to let such a coalition govern for a reasonable time — say, two years.
It’s almost a certainty that if Mr. Dion could craft such an arrangement, the Harper government would be toppled on a Throne Speech confidence vote. The Governor-General would have no option but to give him a chance to form the government.
It would take some convoluted, as well as tough, bargaining. Mr. Layton would be in line for Deputy Prime Minister. And perhaps to balance things out, Mr. Dion would call in his friend Elizabeth May as Minister of the Environment. If she’s not elected, there would be pressure for a Liberal in a safe riding to step down for a by-election. She’d be a cinch to win it.
As far-fetched as this scenario may sound, it’s clear that as many as two-thirds of Canadians don’t want Mr. Harper as Prime Minister. Let the market drop another thousand points, and watch the banks begin to scream for fresh capital to keep the wheels of credit turning. Nothing Mr. Harper has done so far would indicate he’s equipped to cope with such a situation.
And give a thought to this twist: If vote splitting is carried to its extreme, it’s not impossible the Bloc could end up as the Official Opposition. All the more reason for a Liberal-NDP coalition.
One thing’s sure: If the country emerges divided from the polling booths next Tuesday, get ready for the “Mother of all political battles” on the floor of Parliament.
