Frank McKenna’s wise decision
Frank McKenna, the highly regarded former premier of New Brunswick has decided, as I predicted he would, to pass up the race for leadership of the Liberal party of Canada. He made the announcement this afternoon.
Last week, I wrote that I did not expect “McKenna to give up a cushy bank job to begin an uncertain political task.”
Meanwhile, the New Brunswick MP, Dominic LeBlanc, became the first to jump into the race when he announced yesterday that he’ll run.
Dominic, son of Romeo LeBlanc who served as Governor General in the 1990s, comes to the race with some very senior support, both inside and outside caucus. He’s fluently bilingual, personable, but will have to overcome the Liberal tradition of switching between French and English leaders.
They say John Manley is also testing the waters. If you thought Stephane Dion lacked charisma, wait until you hear Manley’s announcement speech, if he ever makes one.
I’d give LeBlanc odds of 3 to 1, and Manley 5 to 1.
I’d say the odds favor Michael Ignatieff as the front-runner as of this moment. Bob Rae can’t be far behind.
The big knock on Iggy when he ran last time was that he’d been out of the country for 35 years, and he seemed to think we’d open up the pearly gates to welcome him back. Also, he’d shown the poor judgement to support George Bush’s war in Iraq.
All that’s now a thing of the past. Iggy performed well in Parliament, showed loyalty to Dion in the election, and has twice won his Toronto Etobicoke Lakeshore seat.I give him even odds.
Similarly, Bob Rae has been an impressive MP but it may be that he carries too much baggage from his days as Premier of Ontario during the 90s recession to be a comfortable choice at this time. My odds: 3 to 2.
The absence of Frank McKenna from the race ensures there will be no left-right split at the convention. The former NB premier would have come in with major support from Bay Street, but that doesn’t carry a lot of credibility these days.He made a wise decision in staying out.
There’ll be a range of second-tier candidates. I’m waiting to see if Martha Hall Findlay opts to give it another try. She impressed last time out, and to continue with the horse racing jargon, this is a filly who could surprise the field.
