Wild About Writing

I’m at a pre-Christmas reception in the community hall of Lagoon City, hard by fast-freezing Lake Simcoe. There’s much talk — and much confusion — about the political upheaval that’s shaking the country.

It may be that this confusion, and the fear of the unknown wrapped around the prospect of a Liberal-NDP coalition, will turn out to be Stephen Harper’s greatest ally as he goes into a week filled with desperate maneuvering to save his government from collapse.

If the Prime Minister survives, it’ll be the greatest high wire act since Blondin crossed the Niagara Gorge. Even loyal Conservatives are questioning Harper’s future. There’s already a web site promoting Jim Prentice as Prime Minister.

The kindest thing one can say about the Prime Minister is that he seems to have blundered. His reasoned remarks since the election were gaining him broader support. His admission,  when he was at the APEC Conference, of the need for economic stimulus convinced many he was facing up to the reality of the economic crisis.

So how, in an Economic Update that promised nothing but the fantasy of five balanced budgets, did he get so off-track? Where did those measures to abolish political subsidies, ban public service strikes, and deny pay equity appeals come from?

Maybe Stephen Harper has a secret agenda after all. Certainly, these ideas weren’t part of any public agenda. They weren’t mentioned in the Throne Speech and they never came up during the election. Is this an indication of where Mr. Harper would really like to take the country if he had a majority?

On top of that foolishness, we now get the PM’s office publishing the tape of an  NDP caucus conference call. Shades of the KGB!

The big question hanging over Ottawa as the city awakens Monday morning has to be whether Harper & Co will back down any further. They’ve withdrawn their three controversial measures, and they’ve moved budget day up to January 27. None of this is likely to deter the Opposition. Will the government now be willing to produce some immediate economic stimulus?

Virtually every economist in the country has criticized the Economic Update as inadequate to deal with the threats we we face.

Above all, Bay Street and Main Street want stability. The big plunge in the market Monday morning is a negative sign. If Mr.  Harper could somehow defuse the situation with an immediate move to provide a measure of fiscal stimulus, the public would breathe a sigh of relief and the wind might be taken out of Opposition sails.

If not, it’s “Goodbye, Charlie Brown.” (Remember the lady who gave the finger to Brian Mulroney when his hubris got the better of him?)

Facts about coalition

Judging from what I heard at Lagoon City, there’s not much understanding about how a Coalition government would work:

• It won’t include the Bloc, although the Bloc will have to commit itself to suppprting the new government for a specific length of time. What the Libs and Dippers would have to give Quebec is return could worry some.
• Coalition governments aren’t necessarily unstable. Germany is governed right now, and very successfully, by Angela Merkel at the head of a coalition regime.
• It’ll be up to the Liberals to decide whether they let Stephane Dion go in as PM until the May leadership convention. They could decide to let the caucus and the national executive choose the new leader right away.

There’s some speculation that the PM might proroge Parliament, rather than face a non-confidence vote.  Dismissing Parliament cost King Charles his head. We no longer do that sort of thing. Just as well.

Also worth reading:

Why the Opposition can’t back down now.

The humbling of a Prime Minister