Coalition redux – It’s time (again)
Seven weeks, and a sea change in Canada’s political profile. When Prime Minister Harper got the Governor General to prorogue Parliament early in December:
- Harper was in denial about the effect on Canada of the world economic crisis,
- He was standing by his Finance Minister’s projection of budget surpluses in the coming five years,
- The public had little stomach for the idea of a Liberal-NDP Coalition.
Now, as we get ready for the re-opening of Parliament on Monday and a deficit-busting budget on Tuesday, where are we?
- Harper admits we’re in recession and no one knows how bad things will get
- The government is filling the news cycle with details of what will be in the budget (that used to be a hanging offence!)
- And the public has swung around to favor, narrowly, the replacement of Harper’s government by the Coalition.
This is the key to what might happen in Parliament this week. It’s not been widely reported, or discussed, but while Harper and Flaterty have desperately been going through the motions of consulting with Canadians, there’s been big time erosion in support for the Conservatives.
An Ekos-Globe and Mail survey revealed last Thursday that 50 per cent of Canadians would support a Coalition led by Michael Ignatieff. Forty-three per cent would oppose it, with the rest undecided. (Remember, two-thirds voted AGAINST Harper in the election election.)
Elkos president Frank Graves summed up the results as follows:
“This is a huge change from the period right after the Coalition agreement was struck, when the Tories took an apparently unassailable 20-point lead.”
On a straight party vote, the Conservatives now hold only a 3-point edge over the Liberals. Only 35 per cent approve of the way Harper’s doing his job. Liberal support is surging in Quebec.
The spluge of pre-budget announcements reflect the desperation of the Tories . The unprecedented disclosures we’ve been hearing almost hour by hour reflect, also, a huge change in Tory communications strategy.
Used to be that Harper had the only voice when it came to speaking for his government. The new approach, which has cabinet ministers rushing about the country telling us of big spending plans in the budget, reflects the line the PM’s new communications director, Kory Teneycke, has been laying down.
Remarkable, as Harper’s never been known to take advice before.
Is Michael Ignatieff willing to become Prime Minister as head of a Coalition government? He’s let drop a few clues:
What Ignatieff has said about the Budget
Last week, Michael Ignatieff spoke to the Canadian Club in Toronto. He delivered a tough but well-received message: cut out the games and let’s get down to business. Listen to it here:
The fact the budget will be loaded with stimulus spending doesn’t mean Harper can count on it getting through Parliament. Everything in Harper’s make-up suggests what we’ll hear in the budget isn’t what’s in his heart.
Better a Coalition with policies it believes in, than a Harper regime with policies it detests.
